This offer is open only to investors that are “accredited investors” (as defined in Rule 501(a) of Regulation D promulgated under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”)) that are also “qualified purchasers” within the meaning of Section 2(a)(51)(A) of the United States Investment Company Act of 1940, as amended (the “Investment Company Act”).
Opportunities in Real-Time Event Forecasting
Prediction markets represent an emerging financial tool that taps into collective knowledge to anticipate outcomes across diverse areas, including politics, economics, sports, and cultural events. By allowing participants to trade contracts tied to specific future results, these platforms generate dynamic probability estimates that evolve with new information.
How Prediction Markets Operate
At their core, these markets function where users purchase or sell shares representing "yes" or "no" outcomes for a given event. For instance, a contract might pay out $1 if a certain candidate wins an election and $0 otherwise with the current trading price of the share for example $0.60—implies a 60 percent likelihood of that outcome occurring. This mechanism incentivises accurate forecasting because traders stake real money, leading to more reliable aggregates of dispersed knowledge. Liquidity plays a crucial role, as deeper markets enable smoother transactions and sharper predictions, providing investors with up-to-the-minute insights.
Leading the space are decentralised platforms like Polymarket have democratised access by enabling global users to engage without traditional barriers. These sites have experienced surging participation, reflecting growing interest in event-based trading. Polymarket is a decentralized prediction market platform built on blockchain technology, specifically operating on the Polygon network, which is a Layer-2 scaling solution for Ethereum and launched in 2020.
Polymarket
Polymarket has recently raised capital, most notably a strategic investment of up to $2 billion from the New York Stock Exchange's parent company, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), which values the company at $9 billion post-investment. In 2024, the company announced that it had raised $70 million across two funding rounds which included investments from Vitalik Buterin, the co-founder of Ethereum, and Founders Fund, a VC firm founded by Peter Thiel. ICE's major investment in Polymarket, underscores the platform's potential to influence mainstream finance. This partnership highlights how prediction data could fuel innovative products, such as derivatives or hedging tools, and pave the way for broader adoption and integration with decentralised finance (DeFi).
Prediction markets could reshape finance by bridging traditional and digital realms, offering investors an alternative way to engage with uncertainty. Register your interest below to speak with a US-based advisor for more information and how to invest in this private market opportunity.
